Wrapping Up 2018 With a Market Update

    Our market seems to be normalizing, according to our most recent numbers. Here’s what this means for 2019.

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    Today we’ll be going over our real estate market numbers for the end of 2018, as well as give our prediction of what 2019 may hold for us.

    We’re always focusing on our leading indicators, which can be found from looking at what’s happening in the market now—not months ago.

    The number of new homes on the market is up 8.9% from last year. However, the number of pending sales have gone down 12.8% year to year. More homes are going on the market and fewer are leaving, leading to an increase in inventory by 44.4%. This isn’t cause for panic, because inventory was incredibly low last year. We’re at 2.6 months’ worth of inventory now, which still isn’t a huge amount of supply—a balanced market sees six months’ worth.

    The time to sell a home is up 13.3% to an average of 34 days. This is still much lower than in a balanced market, where it takes two to three months for homes to sell.

    Our market will be normalizing.

    What does this mean for you? If you’re thinking of buying a home, know that it’s a calmer market in comparison to the recent past. You won’t be facing intense competition with multiple-offer situations where you’re constantly outbid. There’s more inventory now, which means you have more options.

    Sellers, it’s still a great market for you to sell in. We don’t know if values are going to increase any further, but we do know that we’re pretty close to a peak in our seller’s market. You want to get close to that peak, but waiting too long will put you in danger of falling prices.

    What do we predict for 2019? Inventory levels and time to sell will continue to rise and prices will begin to level off. Last year, we predicted about a 7.4% increase in home prices, which is pretty much where we’re at now. That number will most likely go down, and this time next year, the percentage of difference will probably be close to flat. There won’t be a lot of appreciation, but there won’t be a lot of depreciation, either. All in all, our market will be normalizing.

    If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, have any questions, or need more information, feel free to reach out to us. Until then, we’ll see you next year!


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    Our agents write often to give you the latest insights on owning a home or property in the San Diego area.